Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices
China’s informal financing in March, M2 supply and new RMB loans in March and US March LMCI will be released today. Base metals are expected to consolidate at lows today. Some metals may plunge further.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain tight monetary policy stance. But new RMB loans in March, informal financing and M2 supply are expected to rise due to low base, and strong demand for loans in PPP and infrastructure construction.
Despite big drop in US non-farm employment in March, the market attributes the drop to weather factor. When combined with well-behaved labor market recently, the US labor market is still believed to be steady. If the LMCI in March weakens, market expectations of a Fed interest rate hike in June will decrease, which will weigh on the US dollar.